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Common cardiovascular risk tools like the Framingham Risk Score significantly underestimate heart disease risk in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D), new EDIC study data show. Adding a coronary artery calcium (CAC) scan helps a little, but experts say T1D-specific prediction models are urgently needed. The distinct, faster-progressing nature of CVD in T1D is likely to blame.
Standard cardiovascular risk calculators — including the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus, and the AHA's PREVENT tool — are widely embedded in electronic health records and used daily to guide treatment decisions. But new data presented at the EASD 2026 Annual Meeting reveal they consistently underestimate 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D), a population whose accelerated CVD trajectory doesn't fit the standard mold.
Researchers analyzed data from 1,311 participants in the long-running EDIC study. Actual CVD risk was significantly higher than what standard tools predicted. The only T1D-specific model tested — the Steno T1 Risk Engine — performed better but slightly overpredicted risk. Adding coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores nudged prediction accuracy upward, but only modestly.
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Why it matters: Clinicians relying on standard risk tools may be systematically underestimating heart disease risk in T1D patients, potentially delaying life-saving interventions. Experts are calling for better, T1D-tailored risk prediction tools to close this dangerous gap.