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Three in four former NFL players likely had CTE when they died, a new study finds. Published in JAMA Network Open, the research analyzed over 2,300 deceased players and corrected for brain donation bias to estimate a 74.5% CTE prevalence. Even the most conservative analysis put the figure at 63.7%, signaling the condition is widespread — not an outlier.
A landmark study published in JAMA Network Open estimates that nearly 75% of former NFL players who died between 2008 and 2023 had chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) — a neurodegenerative disease linked to repetitive head impacts that can only be definitively diagnosed after death. Researchers analyzed data from over 2,300 deceased players and carefully adjusted for "brain donation bias," the concern that symptomatic players are more likely to have their brains donated, which could inflate prevalence estimates.
Even after those corrections, the numbers remained striking. A conservative sensitivity analysis still put CTE prevalence at 63.7%, and additional analyses ranged as high as 86.1%. Researchers also found that more than 27% of deceased players had dementia during their lifetime, though a direct causal link to CTE couldn't be confirmed.
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Why it matters: This study moves the CTE conversation beyond brain bank data and donation bias debates. With a reliable population-level estimate now in hand, experts hope it will accelerate efforts to develop in-life biomarkers, improve care for former players, and drive prevention strategies across football and other contact sports.
