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A new modeling study reveals that 1 in 7 people in high-incidence states will contract Lyme disease by their early 80s — and in Vermont, that risk jumps to nearly 1 in 3. Researchers say shifting focus from annual case counts to lifetime risk better captures the long-term burden of the disease for people living in endemic areas.
A new population-based modeling study presented at IDWeek 2026 found that residents of high-incidence states face a 13.7% lifetime risk of contracting Lyme disease by ages 80–84. Researchers analyzed CDC mortality data and insurance claims from ~60 million Americans (2016–2023) to calculate cumulative lifetime risk by age group and geography.
Vermont tops the list with a 32.5% lifetime risk, followed by Connecticut (28.7%), Rhode Island (25.5%), Maine (24.7%), and New Hampshire (19.2%). Most states sit at 2% or below. Notably, more than half of a person's total lifetime risk accumulates before age 50.
By the Numbers:
Why it matters: Framing Lyme disease through lifetime risk — rather than annual case counts — gives patients and clinicians a clearer picture of the long-term threat, especially in endemic regions. It also underscores the urgency of prevention strategies and the potential value of a Lyme disease vaccine currently under FDA review.
