A landmark study published in Nature Human Behaviour has dramatically revised estimates of Australia's pre-colonial Indigenous population, placing it at approximately 2.22 million people before the First Fleet arrived in 1788 — potentially seven times higher than the long-cited figure of 250,000 calculated by anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown in the 1930s. Researchers from Flinders University and partner institutions combined genetic reconstructions, archaeological evidence, ethnographic data, and advanced computer modeling to arrive at the new estimate.

The findings also lay bare the staggering scale of what followed colonization. An estimated 93% of the Indigenous population was lost within just 73 years, with roughly 2.06 million excess deaths occurring between 1788 and 1861 — driven by disease, frontier violence, and systemic oppression. By 1861, Indigenous Australians numbered just 7% of their pre-colonial population.

By the Numbers:

• 2.22 million: estimated pre-colonial Indigenous population
• 93%: population lost within 73 years of European arrival
• ~28,200: average excess deaths per year between 1788–1861
• 37%: current Indigenous population as a share of the 1788 estimate (per 2021 census)
• ~2047: projected year the population may return to pre-colonial levels

Why it matters: Beyond rewriting history books, these findings have direct implications for public health and policy — deepening our understanding of intergenerational trauma, persistent health and social disadvantage among Indigenous Australians, and the urgent need for culturally informed, equity-driven policy responses.