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A new modeling study presented at IDWeek estimates that current flu vaccination programs prevent over 11,000 deaths and 141,000 hospitalizations in the US each year. Adults 65 and older benefit the most, while working-age adults (18–64) remain dangerously under-vaccinated at just 20–22%. Experts say closing these gaps — and exploring complementary prevention strategies — could save even more lives.
A modeling study presented at IDWeek in Washington reveals just how much flu vaccination is doing for the US — and how much more could be done. Researchers from GlaxoSmithKline analyzed CDC data from 2010–2024 to estimate what influenza burden would look like in a world with zero vaccination. The answer: roughly 5.3 million more symptomatic cases, 141,000 more hospitalizations, and 11,330 more deaths every year.
Adults aged 65 and older account for the lion's share of those prevented outcomes — nearly 94,000 additional hospitalizations and almost 10,000 additional deaths — largely because they have higher baseline vaccination rates and have seen improved vaccine effectiveness in recent years. Meanwhile, adults aged 18–64 remain the most under-vaccinated group, with coverage hovering at just 20–22%, well below the Healthy People 2030 target of 70%.
By the Numbers:
Why it matters: These findings give policymakers a concrete, data-driven case for strengthening flu vaccination programs — especially among working-age adults. Experts also suggest that complementary strategies like improved air filtration and antiviral uptake deserve more attention alongside vaccination efforts.
