The share of uninsured Americans has jumped to 11.2% in 2026, up from 8.9%, according to a new Commonwealth Fund survey. The spike is tied to the expiration of enhanced ACA tax credits and the end of pandemic-era Medicaid protections. With Medicaid work requirements set to kick in next year, experts warn the numbers could climb even higher.
The U.S. uninsured rate has surged to 11.2% in 2026 — up from 8.9% — according to the Commonwealth Fund's biennial Health Insurance Survey, which polled 9,360 adults between May and July. Researchers point to two key culprits: the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits for ACA marketplace plans and the end of a post-COVID policy that helped people hold onto their Medicaid coverage.
And the outlook isn't getting rosier. With Medicaid work requirements slated to roll out in early 2027, the Congressional Budget Office projects that ongoing policy shifts could push the uninsured count up by 11 million more people by 2036 — reaching roughly 37 million total. Lead researcher Sara Collins described the situation as "a tsunami of problems," noting that federal policy is moving in the opposite direction of what most Americans actually want.
By the Numbers:
Why it matters: Coverage losses don't just affect the uninsured — half of all adults are already skipping care because of cost. As federal policy rolls back ACA protections, the ripple effects on access, affordability, and health outcomes could be felt across the entire healthcare system.
