The U.S. healthcare system is already stretched thin — over 108 million Americans live in primary care shortage areas — and things are on track to get worse. A new report from Covista projects the national clinician shortage will nearly double by 2040, fueled by burnout, an aging workforce, and a pipeline that can't keep up with demand. Patients are already feeling the pinch, paying an estimated $430 more per year due to overtime costs, temp staffing, and overcrowded ERs.

But the crisis isn't inevitable. Covista's analysis suggests the industry could close 92% of the projected gap through a combination of targeted strategies — and no single fix does it alone.

By the Numbers:

• 37% of the gap could be closed by AI tools that automate administrative work
• 25% could be addressed by reducing clinician burnout and improving retention
• 25% could be closed by expanding medical education program capacity
• 13% reduction possible through a shift to preventive care models
• 7% gain from investing in non-traditional students (adult learners, career changers)
• Patient costs could rise from $430/year today to $1,250/year by 2040 without intervention

Why it matters: Solving the workforce shortage isn't just an industry problem — it's a patient safety issue. Covista estimates that closing the nursing gap alone could save nearly 100,000 lives by 2040, while addressing the physician shortage could add more than 6 months to average life expectancy.