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Despite widespread claims of an autism "epidemic," a new study in JAMA Pediatrics finds no evidence of a true surge. Analyzing 12 consecutive birth cohorts of South Korean children, researchers found ASD incidence and prevalence remained stable over seven years. The rise in diagnoses is likely driven by better awareness and improved detection — not a genuine increase in cases.
Despite high-profile claims — including from HHS Secretary RFK Jr. — that autism rates have reached epidemic proportions, a new study published in JAMA Pediatrics tells a different story. Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin analyzed data from over 62,000 South Korean children across 12 consecutive birth cohorts (born 1998–2010) and found that both the cumulative incidence and prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) remained essentially flat over a seven-year period.
The study's authors concluded that the pattern "suggests improved detection rather than increased ASD occurrence and does not support an autism epidemic." In other words, we're getting better at identifying autism — not seeing more of it.
By the Numbers:
Why it matters: As policymakers debate the causes of rising autism diagnoses, this research provides a critical data-driven counterpoint — suggesting that expanded screening and awareness, not a true epidemic, explain the trend.
