Employers are bracing for another painful year of healthcare cost increases. According to Marsh's 2026 National Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Plans, employer healthcare costs are projected to rise 8.2% in 2027—the highest increase since 2003 and the fifth consecutive year of climbing costs. Without any cost-mitigation steps, employers estimate their plans would cost 11% more next year.

Several forces are driving the surge: provider consolidation, government funding lagging behind inflation, advanced treatments, AI-driven claims processing, and growing use of GLP-1 medications. Marsh actuaries estimate GLP-1 utilization alone accounts for a full percentage point of the projected cost growth. The No Surprises Act's Independent Dispute Resolution process is also adding fuel to the fire, with associated costs hitting $22.4 billion by end of 2025.

By the Numbers:

• 8.2% — projected employer healthcare cost increase in 2027 (highest since 2003)
• 11% — estimated cost rise if no mitigation actions are taken
• $22.4B — total costs tied to the No Surprises Act's IDR process through 2025
• $19,000+ — projected average per-employee cost, per a separate Aon report (9.5% increase)
• 59% — share of employers planning cost-cutting changes to health benefits

Why it matters: With costs outpacing inflation year after year, employers face tough choices—cutting benefits, shifting costs to employees, or dropping certain coverages like GLP-1s. The ripple effects touch millions of workers and could reshape how employer-sponsored insurance is structured going forward.